Our time begins now
The Paris Agreement on climate change would not be enough to avoid global warming of 1.5° C over pre-industrial temperatures. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on 1.5° C has come at a time when there are multiple alarms for India. Another study in Nature Climate Change identifies India as the country with the most expected damage from rising levels of carbon dioxide.
Warnings to India
- Higher risks from heavy precipitation events, including flooding and tropical cyclones.
- Increased number of hot days and Coastal flooding.
- Denting India’s GDP by 2.8% and depress the living standards of nearly half the population by 2050.
- The people living in the severe “hotspot” districts of central India, particularly Vidarbha, are staring at the prospect of an over 10% dip in economic consumption.
- Decreased food availability as a result of projected dip in crop production.
- Increased risk of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue.
Socio-economic challenges for India
- India has two complex and inter-related problems. The first is to bring a vast population out of poverty and into decent lives. The second is to do this while dealing responsibly with the global carbon challenge and building resilience to climate change.
- The 1.5° C report calls for societal transformation on a global scale that “reflect the links, synergies and trade-offs between mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development.”
- Recent events, however, show that India cannot trade off forests, urban water bodies, riverine ecosystems, waste management or groundwater as these come back to bite us as floods, landslides, droughts and infectious disease.
Successful examples of innovation for climate resilience
- India, nevertheless, has a large number of successful examples of transformative innovation around energy production and access, land, livelihoods and climate resilience. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency showed how government ‘nudges’ are made effective through appliance labelling and large-scale procurement of efficient devices.
- In the building and cement industry, innovation around housing and new materials, including natural fibre composites, could make far-reaching changes in infrastructure through low-carbon modular technologies.
- India expects to reach its ambitious solar target of 100 GW capacity by 2022 primarily through large centralised solar power plants.
- The renewable-based microgrids can become an important feature of electricity policy. For example, Jharkhand, which has 249 remote villages powered by solar microgrids, is now considering their use even in villages that are already grid connected.
Major Challenges
In transport and urbanisation, the challenge is to create isotropic communities in the areas of the peri-urban, the rapidly expanding hinterland, which would have to be designed around not cars but walking, cycling and sustainable neighbourhood vehicles. Work and industry would also have to focus on the small and medium scale of about 300 employees and modest capital investments, which reduce the risk of speculation and jobless growth.
Putting plans into action
The next round of state action plans on climate change now being developed might begin with identifying successful development approaches overlaid with expected climate impacts in each ecological zone. A ‘luxury’ carbon tax that curbs non-essential consumption could be employed for funding large investments in green technology. The entrepreneurs can build decentralised, neighbourhood-scale micro-utilities, managed by locally owned enterprises and cooperatives. With modern power electronics and innovations in hybrid waste to energy, water recycling and community gardens could be integrated as standalone modules that are connected to larger grids.