New geopolitics centring around the rise of China, the future of US hegemony, the fate of the post-world war alliance system, the efficacy of the multilateral institutions, the churn in Europe, the rising salience of the Indo-Pacific, the reshaping of the Middle East, the growing salience of technology in trade and politics and the fears of pandemics and viruses is shaping up. The trends that unfolded in 2020 will gather pace in 2021. India has been deeply affected by these changes. India-China standoff was unexpected.
The stark contrast between Trump’s America and Xi’s China could not be greater. The US withdrew from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) while China joined the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP) mega trade deal and reached a landmark investment agreement with the EU after seven long years of negotiations; this will drive a wedge between US and EU.
The US withdrew from the Paris Climate Change Accord while China declared that it would become carbon neutral by 2060. The US pulled out of the WHO even as China promised a USD 2 billion contribution to the organisation.
The US left the Human Rights Council while China was elected to it despite its questionable human rights record. While the US was struggling with its infrastructure initiatives, China was expanding the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) to include a Digital Silk Route and a Health Silk Road.
The US continued to spurn Russia, China was strengthening its alliance with it. The US has lost nearly half a million lives to coronavirus in less than a year while China advertised its efficient handling of the coronavirus crisis.
China happily filled the global space that the US was vacating under Trump. The message from China was that the US is weakening and China is strengthening.
The development of a strong India-U.S. relationship over the past few years, which witnessed intense political dialogue, a larger umbrella agreement for defense cooperation, major defense deals worth billions of dollars, unprecedented joint military exercises, a strengthening of ties between the militaries of both countries, and an effort to develop defense technologies and trade in new areas, has had a powerful impact on India's strategic autonomy.
Defence cooperation: India signed all the ‘foundational’ agreements with America and bought billions of dollars’ worth of military hardware from them.
Strategic Autonomy: India resisted converting the Quad into a military or strategic grouping. The External Affairs Minister even once stated that India will not join any military alliance.
The policy on Iran and other regional issues like the West Asia peace plan and Israel-Palestine will largely depend on whether the US's allies, like India, are involved in the decision-making process.
India's own strategic interests in West Asia are large. This sub-region is home to a sizeable, second-generation, and third-generation Indian community that includes the largest number of NRIs. India has a large stake in energy security in the region.
Sanctions in Iran have also limited our ability to buy Iranian oil, and sell our pharma and other goods. India is working with the U.S. Treasury to get additional licenses for this purpose.
Biden administration's West Asia policy would smoothen the efforts of Indian companies to exploit new investment opportunities in Iran. The negative approach of the US has already frustrated the group led by Essar seeking to invest big money in the Chabahar project.
If Biden adopts a more conciliatory approach towards China, India will be left alone in confronting with China.
On matter related to QUAD, it is highly likely that India will be forced to agree to some form of military alliance in future given the fact that all the other three countries are already in strategic alliance with one another.
With India not in a position to deal with China on its own and we need external support to protect our territorial integrity.
Even Jawaharlal Nehru, the architect of non-alignment, sought the help from America during the war with China in 1962.