According to IEP’s first ecological threat register, as the climate crisis and rapid population growth drive an increase in migration with “huge impacts” for both the developing and developed worlds, more than 1 billion people face being displaced by 2050.
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Key-Points
The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), a thinktank that produces annual global terrorism and peace indexes, said 1.2 billion people lived in 31 countries that are not sufficiently resilient to withstand ecological threats.
19 countries facing the highest number of threats, including water and food shortages and greater exposure to natural disasters, are also among the world’s 40 least peaceful countries.
Out of 157 countries’ assessed, 141 countries faced at least one ecological threat by 2050, with sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa the regions facing the largest number.
Some countries, such as India and China, are most threatened by water scarcity, it concluded, while others such as Pakistan, Iran, Kenya, Mozambique and Madagascar face a combination of threats and a growing incapacity to deal with them.
It judged Pakistan to be the country with the largest number of people at risk of mass migration, followed by Ethiopia and Iran.
16 countries including Sweden, Norway, Ireland, and Iceland, faced no threat.
The world had 60% less fresh water available than it did 50 years ago, while demand for food was predicted to rise by 50% by 2050 and natural disasters were only likely to increase in frequency because of the climate crisis.