Implications of drones for future modern warfare

Recently, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended, as both sides decided to sign a ceasefire agreement. Unlike most wars in recent decades, this war has ended decisively in the sense that there is a victor, that is Azerbaijan, and there is a defeated side.

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Back in the 1990s, it was the Armenians who had trumped Azerbaijan. But decades later the tables turned, in a way that could have severe implications on modern warfare. According to the source this is actually the first war in the history of modern warfare that has been won almost entirely on the strength of drone warfare.

The war between Armenia and Azerbaijan started on 27 September, over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. While Armenia only fought with tanks, artillery and air defence systems, Azerbaijan relied heavily on drones, specifically the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 and the Israeli-made Kamikaze drones. The two drones can carry bombs of up to 55 kg and 15 kg respectively.

The advantage of drone warfare is it can debilitate a force by having a devastating effect on the morale of soldiers because the enemy do not know what will come and hit them.

At the heart of the issue was the devastation that had been caused by the drones in the conflicts in Syria and Libya. As the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan proved, Turkey developed the capability to build its own drones, which could affect India.

Turkey and Pakistan are now very close allies. Turkey will not give Pakistan drones for free because its economy is a mess. But if one gets very desperate, the Pakistanis can find the money. So India has to work on the presumption that Pakistan has access to these.