India leads in TB prevalence estimation with a new mathematical model: India has developed a country-level mathematical model that estimates the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) cases in the country. The model allows for annual estimates of tuberculosis incidence and mortality to be available by March, months before the World Health Organization (WHO) releases its annual estimates in October. The model, which is based on data such as a person’s infection and disease status, healthcare utilisation, and treatment outcomes, was presented at the 36th Stop TB Partnership Board meeting in Varanasi. The Indian model estimated the TB incidence rate in India to be 196 in 2022, lower than the WHO’s estimate of 210 and suggested 3.20 lakh TB mortality absolute numbers in 2022, lower than WHO’s estimated 4.94 lakhs.
April 2023 Current Affairs Quiz
India’s Efforts to Eliminate TB: Improved Treatment and Patient Tracking
India has made significant efforts to increase the National TB Elimination Program coverage and generate more evidence. Laboratory services have been scaled up and decentralized with high-quality rapid diagnostic tests. Furthermore, India has implemented a daily regimen for first-line tuberculosis treatment, integrating the regimens in the public and private sectors to ensure universal access to TB care. Patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis have received injection-free, shorter, and more effective second-line treatment. The use of Nikshay, a tracking system for patients, has helped to improve the treatment outcomes of all types of patients in both the public and private sectors, including those who may have otherwise been lost to follow-up.
India’s TB data to be available months before WHO estimates
The Indian mathematical model is the first of its kind and will allow for TB incidence and mortality estimate data for India to be available earlier than the WHO’s annual estimates. This will enable India to take targeted measures to address the TB burden in the country. Similar estimates may be prepared at the state level in the future. Data such as an individual’s infection and disease status, healthcare utilisation, and treatment outcomes are used to build the model. The model estimated a lower TB incidence rate and mortality absolute numbers than the WHO, highlighting the importance of country-specific estimates.
India’s efforts to increase TB elimination program coverage
India has made significant efforts over the last 9-10 years to increase the National TB Elimination Program coverage, find missing cases, and generate more evidence. Laboratory services have been scaled up and decentralized with high-quality rapid diagnostic tests such as the Nucleic Acid Amplification Test. The implementation of a daily regimen for first-line tuberculosis treatment has aided in ensuring universal access to TB care. Patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis have received injection-free, shorter, and more effective second-line treatment. The Indian mathematical model is another step towards addressing the TB burden in the country, providing earlier estimates that can inform targeted measures to combat the disease.
