Scientists could not predict the exact nature of Covid second wave

A group of scientists could not predict the exact trajectory of the devastating second wave as the virus dynamics and its transmissibility changed substantially over time. Scientists working on the SUTRA model have rejected media reports claiming that they had cautioned the Government regarding the second wave of the corona pandemic in March this year.

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SUTRA model is used for charting the trajectory of COVID-19 in the country.

In a media statement, group of scientists working on the model stated that a mathematical model can only predict future with some certainty so long as virus dynamics and its transmissibility don’t change substantially over time.

They added that in the case of COVID-19, the nature of the virus has been changing very rapidly.

In such a context, they said any prediction for COVID-19 must be continually readjusted.

The Scientists working on the SUTRA model said that they continue their efforts to better estimate the future trajectory of the pandemic.