Private weather forecast company, Skymet Weather, has said monsoon this year is likely to be 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
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The LPA refers to the average all-India monsoon rainfall of 88 cm, which is a 50-year mean.
The agency classified the forecast as “healthy normal”.
The monsoon in 2019 and 2020 was only the third time in a century of back-to-back years of above normal rainfall (rainfall that is 5% above normal, or 105%) during the season in India. This year’s forecast by Skymet falls a little short of the “above normal” mark.
The odds of an El Nino, characterised by a heating of the equatorial central Pacific over half a degree, are low this year. An El Nino is historically associated, in many years, with a weakening of the monsoon over India.