New monsoon models on the anvil this year

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Daily Current Affairs Article 21th January 2021: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) may introduce new monsoon models this year to better forecast changes in rainfall.

There were three different models that could be tested this year. Two of them were dynamical models and one a statistical model.

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In the former, the climate on any particular day is simulated on supercomputers and meteorologists observe the changing daily output.

The other is the traditional statistical model that equates relationships of physical parameters, such as for instance sea surface temperatures, snowfall, the temperature of landmass etc, with the actual observed rainfall in the past.

The three models under consideration are:

1. 12 global circulation models (dynamical) whose outputs would be combined into a single one;
2. a model that gauges rainfall based on the sea surface temperature in the tropics (developed by Professor Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland, U.S.) and
3. the statistical model based on climate variables observed during the pre-monsoon.

All of them are ‘ensembles’ meaning smaller models are combined to arrive at an average value. The traditional statistical model would continue to be used this year.

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