Credibility of exit/opinion polls
Exit polls begin with the help of different media agencies just before the results when the last phase of voting ends. This helps in gauging the mood of the country even before the official results.
What is exit poll?
The election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. It aims to predict the final result on the basis of the information collected from the voters after they walk out of the polling booth. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks the voter whom they plan to vote for, the exit poll asks the voter whom they actually voted for.
When exit polls failed in estimating results?
The estimates of exit polls were mostly correct during the last Lok Sabha election, but before that, exit polls had failed miserably in 2 consecutive general elections.
The most talked-about failure of exit polls is in 2004. At that time, in most exit polls, the NDA government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee was predicted to come back to power, but the results were completely reversed. The NDA got 189 seats, and the Congress-led UPA got 222 seats, and Dr. Manmohan Singh became the Prime Minister.
When did the opinion poll start?
The trend of opinion polls started in 1940, it started in India in 1960. The Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) started exit polls in India. In 1980, journalist Pranab Roy surveyed to gauge voters' mood. This is considered as the formal start of exit polls in India.
Reasons of exit polls failure
- Sampling inaccuracy/quality: Exit polls are dependent on the sample size, i.e. the number of respondents or the number of precincts chosen. Incorrect estimation of this may lead to error margins.
- Model did not consider multiple turnout scenarios: Voter turnout refers to the percentage of voters who cast a vote during an election. Pollsters may often misinterpret the number of people who actually vote based on the total no. of the population eligible to vote.
- Model did not consider past patterns: Pollsters may commit a mistake by not delving into the past. They can gauge the current turnout rates by taking into the account the presidential turnout votes or the previous midterm elections.
- Model was not recalibrated for year and time of election such as odd-year midterms: Timing is a very crucial factor in getting the right traction for people to vote. At times, some social issues would be much more hyped and talked-about than the elections.
- Number of contestants: Everyone has a personal favorite. In cases where there are just two contestants, it is straightforward to arrive at a clear winner. For pollsters, it is easier to predict votes when the whole world’s talking about it, and they know which candidate is most talked about.
- Swing voters/undecided respondents: Another possible explanation for discrepancies in poll predictions and the outcome is due to a large proportion of undecided voters in the poll samples.
- Number of down-ballot races: Sometimes a popular party leader helps in attracting votes to another less popular candidate of the same party. This is the down-ballot effect.
- The cost incurred to commission a quality poll: A huge capital investment is required in order to commission a quality poll. The cost incurred for a poll depends on the sample size, i.e. the number of people interviewed, the length of the questionnaire–longer the interview, more expensive it becomes, the time within which interviews must be conducted, are some contributing factors.
- Over-relying on historical precedence: Historical precedence is an estimate of the type of people who have shown up previously on a similar type of election. This precedent should also be taken into consideration for better estimation of election results.
- Effect of statewide ballot measures: Poll estimates are also dependent on state and local governments. Certain issues are pushed by local ballot measures. However, some voters feel that power over specific issues should belong exclusively to state governments.
