The Myanmar Military, also known as Tatmadaw went into the power struggle as the decision-making body of the nation after its long political game with the democratic voice of the people in Myanmar. As the future of Myanmar’s democracy is now uncertain and given its strategic importance, this Coup D’etat will have geopolitical implications for the region and India.
Myanmar, also known as Burma, is in South East Asia. It neighbours Thailand, Laos, Bangladesh, China and India.
It has a population of about 54 million, most of whom are Burmese speakers, although other languages are also spoken. The biggest city is Yangon (Rangoon), but the capital is Nay Pyi Taw.
The main religion is Buddhism. There are many ethnic groups in the country, including Rohingya Muslims.
The country gained independence from Britain in 1948. It was ruled by the armed forces from 1962 until 2011, when a new government began ushering in a return to civilian rule.
It was in the 1970s that India began to realize the prospects of Myanmar’s strategically located location. It was also in this decade that the government allowed foreign affairs officials and defense personnel to engage with Burmese counterparts.
Muti-faceted Relationship: The significance of Myanmar to India has been growing steadily since the British left in 1947. Myanmar has been an indispensable factor determining the pattern of India’s political, economic, and strategic relations with the rest of Southeast Asia.
Geo-Strategic Location of Myanmar: Myanmar is strategically significant for India in geo-political terms. It is the principal gateway through which India must pass on its way to Southeast Asia and further on to ASEAN countries, some of which are Indian Ocean neighbors.
Confluence of Two Foreign policy Doctrines: Act East is the Indian foreign policy initiative to forge stronger ties with the countries in ASEAN, while the neighbourhood First policy prioritizes India’s relations with its neighboring countries. The two foreign policy doctrines meet at Myanmar's doorstep.
Competition With China: India’s future in the regional and international system is to become a responsible regional player. A strong India can ensure stability in the sub-continent, and also play a more active role in peace making. Also, India’s role can be vital in acting as a bridge between developed and developing countries, especially between South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Critical For India’s National Security Interests: North-eastern states in India are affected by left-wing extremism and narcotics trade routes (golden triangle). It is also surrounded by its neighbors on all sides which are either aspiring to be superpowers or at war with each other. Since India’s national security has been under threat since the partition of India and Pakistan, there is a need to protect the infrastructure projects and their vital installations from such threats.
Economic Cooperation: India's interest in Myanmar is based on geographical proximity and fast-growing India-ASEAN economic cooperation, in which Myanmar has played an important role.
Political Realignments: It is quite evidently clear that the coup has attracted strong reactions and the threat of sanctions from the United States and the West. This could lead to unique political realignments in Myanmar.
Rohingya Issue on Back Burner: Myanmar’s de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, after doing nothing to rein in the army that was engaged in a widespread crackdown against the Rohingya Muslims, has reportedly said that she is not above criticism over her handling of the crisis. If indeed that is true, then Aung San Suu Kyi would not mind taking to task those who have been basically holding her hostage and demanding that she take action against the military and the leaders, who were orchestrating the genocide of their own people.
Catch-22 Condition: The coup in Myanmar has provided India an opportunity to engage with the regime. The United States and the European Union have banned all interaction with the junta whereas India is cautious about restoring relations. The west’s position against the junta is understandable given the sweeping powers of detention, surveillance and censorship that it enjoys as well as reports of severe human rights violations against civilians including unfair trials, torture and killing of civilians during the crackdown against pro-democracy activists.
